基本面在公共和私募股票市场中仍然很强
PRIVATE EQUITY
Despite a slowdown in EMEA commercial real estate transaction volume in Q2 2020, the private equity market remained robust, with ample dry powder. Preqin data show that fund raising targeting EU real estate investment neared €17 billion in H1 2020, on par with 2019’s annual total of €34.5 billion. The period from March-May 2020 saw significant flight to value-add and opportunistic funds, resulting in a 27% y-o-y increase in aggregate funds raised. Activity was led by Blackstone’s closing of its sixth European Opportunistic fund, with an eventual US$9.8 billion in potential capital allocation.
Although the volume of funds raised would have been less impressive had this particular close not been reached, such activity by large institutional investors is now the market norm, and remains the optimal route for individuals seeking exposure to commercial real estate, especially during periods of economic uncertainty. In the medium-term, CBRE expects to see the continued raising of funds, led by a few large market players and characterised by heavier portfolio allotment to value-add and opportunistic strategies.
PUBLIC EQUITY
The public equity real estate market closely paralleled wider global benchmarks, registering massive corrections heading into Q2 2020. The subsequent recovery across major global stock indices has yet to be fully observed in the publicly traded real estate market. EPRA indices revealed gains of around 5.5% during Q2 2020 and slight losses so far in Q3 2020, trailing behind the 17.7% climb in the DJI average.
因此，CBRE对公开交易的房地产有细微的前景。一方面，由于房地产投资信托基金会落后全球主要的指数，投资者可能会在经济衰退期间寻求机会时涌向最终的资金。另一方面，要求赎回的呼吁可能会迫使资金以折扣价出售。
强化对欧洲REIT NAV折扣S, the six largest of which had already been trading at a discount of -22% going into Q2 2020, could have implications for distressed selling. In the short- to medium-term, value in public equity markets will be impacted by future developments related to the pandemic, such as the likelihood of a second wave or the successful development of a vaccine.
FIGURE 7: FUNDS RAISED BY EUROPEAN FOCUSED FUNDS, Q2 2020
资料来源：pregin。
FIGURE 8: REAL ESTATE VERSUS WIDER EQUITY MARKET PERFORMANCE, H1 2020
资料来源：EPR，Macrobond。
零售和酒店产生最大的影响
产量前景
The pandemic continued to weigh on European commercial real estate yields in Q2 2020.
自2019年第4季度以来，零售和酒店业的受影响最大，在25至75个基点的主要购物中心和酒店（租赁）软化的收益率为25至75个。这种变化更加明显。在办公室领域，在大流行开始前的区域中压缩的主要产量通过保持稳定或略微软化而略有改变。
多户家庭and logistics yields have been stable and are well positioned to recover. CBRE expects investor appetite for commercial real estate to strengthen in the coming quarters as investors are lured by the spread on the risk-free rate and low long-term interest rates. Yields for most sectors, aside from retail, specifically shopping centres and high streets, will harden. This could happen as early as H2 2020 for logistics, core offices and multifamily. Hospitality will likely take longer to recover due to the profound impact of the pandemic on business travel and tourism.
图9：质量产量比较
Source: CBRE Research, 2020.
EUROPEAN COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT VOLUME LIKELY TO APPROACH PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS BY 2022
投资前景
Following the best first quarter on record in terms of investment volume, activity in Q2 2020 was significantly reduced by the pandemic. CBRE transaction data indicates a –39% y-o-y drop in European investment volume over the quarter. However, this figure nevertheless exceeded CBRE’s initial estimates of a two-thirds drop, thanks to deal activity picking up in June.
从奥地利，德国和荷兰在内的封锁中相对较快地出现的国家，就投资量优于其他市场，并有望领导复苏。但是，大多数在2020年代完成的超过1亿欧元的交易是在大流行开始之前就开始了，而弱管道可能会在下一季度拖延投资量。其他问题包括外国资本流入欧洲，尤其是亚洲的资本流入放缓，通常占总投资的5％。
世邦魏理仕预计总欧洲商业现实tate investment to fall by between 30-40% y-o-y in 2020. Provided occupier markets do not worsen further, investment activity will return to pre-pandemic levels by 2022.
图10：全球投资量预测
INVESTORS FOCUS ON VALUE-ADD AND ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES
VALUATION OUTLOOK预计租金收入的下降压力将在短期至中期权衡资本价值。因此，上限利率应在同一时间范围内扩大，这一趋势在某种程度上已经得到了市场证据支持。在增值二级办公室的位置以及对传统部门的增值投资中，已观察到约25％的重新定位。但是，核心市场的上限率，尤其是物流和办公资产的上限率通常保持稳定。
While an abundance of capital is ready to be deployed through private equity channels, transactions in the near term are contingent upon repricing. The pause in private debt markets in Q2 2020 has led to an increased cost of borrowing, estimated at around 50 bps in Europe. This development, coupled with lenders implementing lower LTVs, will continue to affect underwriting in the short- to medium-term – a trend that will benefit equity firms and investors. Repricing across the retail, hotel and selected alternative sectors, as well as value-add strategies across traditional sectors, may intensify in the short-term.
INVESTMENT STRATEGY OUTLOOK
快速的电子商务增长和推动国内供应链的驱动力将为物流市场提供稳固的基础。多户投资，也是自然界的防御性，提供可靠的收入流和稳定的资本价值。那些寻求接触该行业的人，许多人目前认为以溢价进行交易，可能希望在专业的子行业（例如学生住房）中寻求机会。因此，对房地产投资信托基金的投资，尤其是那些有选择性替代投资的投资，可能具有强大的增长潜力，尤其是考虑到它们的诱人折扣。
Positive sentiment in continental European occupier markets, reflected by the gradual return of office-based employees to their workplaces and increased footfall in retail, is also likely to support core investment in the coming quarters. Investors seeking higher yields and possessing a greater risk appetite may wish to consider heavier portfolio allocation to alternatives, core retail and value-add strategies in traditional sectors, all of which are in the midst of repricing.
FIGURE 11: EMEA CAP RATE SURVEY – Q1: 'What was the change in asking prices / asset valuation this month compared to that immediately prior to the COVID-19 outbreak?'
Key Takeaways
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虽然在2020年第2季度的投资量下降了39％，但 仍然有足够的未分配资本，并压制了对欧洲主要财产的需求。
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Public real estate markets will remain volatile in the short-term but may ultimately make up ground with global stock indices. Given current levels of market liquidity, the future course of the pandemic will be a major factor in returns.
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核心物流和办公资产的收益和定价应在短期内保持稳定。
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Although contingent on repricing, investors are displaying renewed appetite for value-add and core plus investments.
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Other opportunities include multifamily, logistics and selective investment in REITS with exposure to alternatives.
