休闲的有希望的恢复故事

好消息是，大多数运营商仍在坚持不懈地投入预算，他们陷入困境，厌倦了强制分离并热衷于回到那里。尽管过去12个月以来，还有其他债务的问题，无论是租金还是CIBIL贷款，但对影响零售业的行业的结构变化并没有出现，这些行业影响了零售业，并且在重新开放之前对休闲投资者进行了一些谨慎的投资，这是有希望的。世邦魏理仕（CBRE）最近在竞争激烈的销售过程中完成了在曼彻斯特特拉福德城（Manchester Trafford City）出售Snowdome，成功的投标人Snowcentre以高于估值的价格击败了少数REIT和PE买家。信念迅速恢复原本强大的性能资产，强调了对休闲的重新出现的信心。

转向其他受到大流行影响的部门，甚至在Covid之前的中型市场餐厅行业都不满。这是由于某些团体将某些团体扩展到较弱的站点，对其他人的租金不可持续的租金和缺乏活力的过时的品牌而引起的。结果是运营商无关紧要的交易。此后，我们目睹了市场的更正，因为CVA和政府促使其表现不佳的地点关闭。但是，那些幸存下来的餐馆预计将重新开放一次重大反弹。尽管在过去一年中，市场租金已经下降，但可以说这是非常需要的，并且在经济重新开放时，经营者可以回到盈利能力，而资金充足的连锁店正在等待战争箱，以抢购吸引人的可用地点，但在更可持续的租金。市场预计将度过一个非常强劲的夏天，每个人都在可能的情况下使用户外座位，而本周开放的场地的反馈非常积极。

Likewise, the cinema operators who have been busy raising capital during this period whilst also working with their landlords on rent deferments are expected to survive with the threat of restructuring receding. The film market in H2 2021 is expected to be excellent, owing to pent up demand coupled with much delayed must-see movies finally being released by studios. The industry is geared up to maintain social distancing measures which are expected to remain in place throughout this year but with decent product, cinemas can still trade profitably. This has been evidenced by domestic product in Continental Europe which continued to drive cinema admissions in the second half of 2020 despite Hollywood shutting up shop in March. Whilst it will be a few years before we can expect admissions to return to 2018/19 numbers, these operators who have stripped substantial costs from their businesses will recover and return to profitability.

We are also seeing a resurgence of demand from other big-box leisure outlets, including children’s activity centres, adventure golf, climbing centres as well as a host of other experiential leisure offers. The investors behind these brands are seeking to secure new sites now rather than waiting until the economy has fully reopened in anticipation of a spike in demand from people desperate to escape their own four walls. This increase in demand has lowered the risk of long-term voids and with prudent asset management strategies, new life can breathe into older sites.

The softening of leisure park yields in the sector over the past 12 months (CBRE’s prime leisure park yield has moved from 5.25% in November 2019 to 7.0% in March 2021) has meant that investors are starting to re-examine the sector. Trading volumes have been thin for three years now with a large proportion of sales driven by Local Authority investors who have been arguably maintaining inflated pricing. The withdrawal of these buyers with their low cost of borrowing will see the market rebase itself particularly around pricing for more secondary assets. Available stock on the market is at an all-time low but it is anticipated that some owners will soon look to exit the sector bruised by a year of low rent collection, whilst others with capital to deploy will see this as an excellent buying opportunity in a sector with a very promising recovery story.